New York Special Election Is Special Case

By ADAM NAGOURNEY

WASHINGTON — Voters in a House district in New York will elect a replacement on Tuesday for Kirsten E. Gillibrand, the Democrat who replaced Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Senate after Mrs. Clinton became secretary of state.

Even before a vote was cast, the contest was freighted with all kinds of political significance — an early test of President Obama’s political strength, a verdict on the stimulus package, a do-or-die moment for a new Republican national chairman, an early sign of how the 2010 midterm elections are going to go (never mind that they are 20 months way).

To a certain extent, all this is understandable. The new president has invested some political capital in the Democratic candidate, Scott Murphy. Mr. Obama’s image appears in an advertisement that the Democratic National Committee ran in the upstate district — albeit not often — and Mr. Obama’s name is affixed to thousands of e-mail messages that the national committee sent out urging voters to support Mr. Murphy. And Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has taped a radio advertisement on Mr. Murphy’s behalf.

Michael Steele, the new Republican chairman who is trying to get beyond a rocky start, has identified this race as a top target for the Republican National Committee. He has campaigned in the district twice on behalf of the Republican candidate, James N. Tedisco, a state assemblyman. Mr. Steele has directed money and resources toward winning the seat, which was solidly Republican until Ms. Gillibrand snatched it away from a troubled incumbent in 2006.

It is also the first special election since Mr. Obama took office — “It’s the only game in D.C. for people to talk about,” said David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter — and the contest is being fought against the backdrop of the sharp partisan division over Mr. Obama’s economic plan.

“It’s going to be seen as a referendum on President Obama and the stimulus package, and a referendum on Albany’s popularity, and a referendum on Gillibrand’s popularity,” said Howard Wolfson, a Democratic consultant who advised Ms. Gillibrand in her 2006 campaign.

In truth, special elections tend to get more attention and analysis than they deserve (guilty, your honor), and while they might briefly raise or lower the political temperature, they tend not to be predictive of much at all. And in this case, there are many extraneous factors at play, and there is enough conflicting data about the political dynamics of the race to permit either side to make at least a plausible argument that it will win.

“The first thing you can count on is this thing is going to be way overspun,” said Tom Davis, a former Virginia congressman and onetime head of the Republican campaign committee in the House. “I don’t think it portends a thing for the midterms. But it emboldens whoever wins.”

That said, a few lessons will certainly be drawn from the race.

The decision by the Democratic National Committee to feature Mr. Obama — understandable, given his popularity — could carry some small risk to the president. Should Mr. Murphy lose, the result will be seized on by Republicans as evidence that Mr. Obama’s power is fading, though how far this line of thought will travel is an open question.

“I think that’s why he only put a toe in,” Mr. Davis said. “The tradition on this is, in special elections, the president’s candidate typically loses.”

Potentially more interesting, though, is what the vote will say about the political potency of the battle over the stimulus package — whether House Republicans, who voted unanimously against it, made a mistake in putting up a unified front.

Mr. Murphy supported the package; Mr. Tedisco equivocated until, after being taunted by Democrats, he finally said he would have voted against it. By every account, Mr. Tedisco’s awkward handling of the issue helped to transform the race.

“Here’s what I think you do know here: when the Democrats stood strong — when Murphy said, ‘I support the stimulus plan’ — he closed the gap 30 points,” said Rahm Emanuel, Mr. Obama’s chief of staff. “You know and I know this should not be dead even.”

Mr. Wasserman, of the Cook Report, said: “The race is pretty even right now. But it didn’t start out that way. Republicans started with a known figure. Democrats started off with someone who isn’t known.”

In the closing stage of the campaign, Republicans attempted to focus attention on the Democratic Congress’s deletion of a clause in the stimulus bill that might have prevented the payment of some bonuses to executives of American Insurance Group. Mr. Tedisco used the move to link Mr. Murphy, a venture capitalist, to the bonuses issue, a flash point for many voters.

Until Ms. Gillibrand’s victory in 2006, the 20th Congressional District was solidly Republican; it was one of just six districts in the state that voted for George W. Bush in 2000.

In 2004, the Republican incumbent, John E. Sweeney, was re-elected with 66 percent of the vote; two years later, he narrowly lost to Ms. Gillibrand after his campaign became embroiled in a series of embarrassing episodes. Still, Republicans enjoy a 75,000 edge in voter registration in the district.

“The fact this race is close at all is a big deal,’” said Jen O’Malley Dillon, the executive director of the Democratic National Committee. “It’s a tough, tough district.”

Trevor Francis, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said much the same thing, as both sides gave a preview of what they might be saying Tuesday night.

“This is going to be a tough one,” Mr. Francis said. “Obama won the district and has a 65-percent approval rating there.”

Ashley Biden Cocaine Video: VP's Daughter Caught Snorting Coke On Tape?

by Mike Baron

Ashley Biden snorting coke on video?. Ashley Biden is the daughter of Vice-President Joe Biden and his wife, Jill Biden.
A friend of the daughter of veep is attempting to hawk a videotape that he claims shows Ashley Biden snorting cocaine at a house party this month in Delaware.

Ashley, 27, is now caught up in a cocaine video scandal and there is no doubt that this is particularly distressful considering her father has been crusader against drugs. In fact, he is the one who coined the phrase 'drug czar' in 1982 while campaigning for the 'war on drugs'.


An anonymous male "friend" of Biden took the video, according to Thomas Dunlap, a lawyer representing the seller. Dunlap and another man claiming to be a lawyer showed The New York Post 90 seconds of a 43-minute tape, saying it was legally obtained and that Biden was aware she was being filmed. The Post turned down the opportunity to pay for the video.

The fact that the New York Post won't pay for the video doesn't mean there won't be a bidding war for it. Read more here.

If and when the video is leaked we will post it here.

Ria Ramkissoon and 1 Mind Ministries: a Failure of the Court System

Wow words can not describe my dismay on how someone could get away with this. This crap about being brainwashed and stuff is total BS in my opinion and makes me madder that people can get away with that kind of thing.

by Gary Davis

Ria Ramkissoon played a definitive role in killing her son. Ria Ramkissoon was -- or is, take your choice -- part of the "1 Mind Ministries" cult. All Ria Ramkissoon has to do is testify against other cult members who took part in the murder by starvation of her son Javon Thompson. Ria

Ramkissoon must serve five years probation. Oh, one other thing. Ria Ramkissoon will await the resurrection of her son. Amazingly, so will the court system. Of course they made it harder by saying it doesn't count if he comes back as a fig or butterfly. It has to be a person.

This story comes from Dan Morse, a Washington Post Staff Writer, in his article "Plea Deal Includes Resurrection Clause."

I'm stunned, absolutely stunned.

You see the implications here are staggering in so many ways and the ignorance is so voluminous that it is shocking.

First, people are calling 1 Mind Ministries a "Christianity-based" cult. 1 Mind Ministries is no more "Christian-based" than the mafia is based on the Vatican. No church teaches killing toddlers for a rebellious spirit. Anybody who has a toddler knows most of them have them.

The reason Jesus could (and did) rise was that He was God. He showed that by being perfect. By all accounts poor little Javon wasn't God therefore, I'm afraid he's sunk.

Since Ria Ramkissoon was brainwashed she was allegedly too robotic to be held accountable for her actions.

However, the arbitrary number of hours of de-programming chosen by the court, taking away what should be a medical decision in the first place, apparently is going to make her okey-dokey.

It gets better. Ria can't stand trial because she wasn't at fault due to her mental state however, this mental state is acceptable to possibly give someone life in prison; it is an acceptable mental state to remember what was going on just not strong enough to make any valuations on the morality of her acts? Is that about it?

And, of course it only makes sense to let her go free until the "resurrection" occurs, not vice-versa.

The press and commentators as usual are speaking authoritatively about things they know nothing about.


This is not a "Christian-based" cult; they are not looking for a "Jesus-like" resurrection; Javon is not capable of coming back by resurrection any more than the rest of us. Ria should be dealt with. If nothing else she should have to go through the normal insanity process.

You do understand don't you that if the Manson Family back in the 1960's would have had this prosecutor, they wouldn't be in jail


Beyond all the ignorance and idiocy I ask you: "Doesn't this set a trend where people can claim their victim will "rise?" Can't murderers claim their victims aren't "really dead?"

This seems to be erroneous law and, this seems to be dangerous law.

I am stunned, absolutely stunned.

Reference:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/30/AR2009033002931.html

Progress Report: Obama's Top 10 Promises

This is from Politifact.com. It keeps track of politician honesty. More so Obama's campaign promises. Which the top 10 are listed below.

By Angie Drobnic Holan



Two months into his presidency, Barack Obama has made progress on most of the campaign promises that made our Obameter Top 10 list.

We created the list before he took office to show the most significant promises of the 513 in our database. Seven of the 10 show some sort of action. We've rated one Promise Kept, one Compromise, and five In the Works.

Of the three promises that are still rated No Action, Obama has said publicly he intends to pursue them.

Here's a look at our Top 10 and where they stand:

• No. 15: Create a foreclosure prevention fund for homeowners Obama proposed a $10 billion foreclosure fund to help struggling homeowners hold onto their homes. He kept his promise and then some, proposing a $75 billion fund. By providing incentives to both lenders and borrowers, the plan allows some homeowners to refinance loans. Obama's plan excludes investors, speculators and people who fraudulently obtained loans, just as he said on the campaign trail. Promise Kept.

• No. 32: Create a tax credit of $500 for workers Obama wanted a Making Work Pay tax credit would yield a maximum credit of $500 for most workers as a rebate on payroll taxes. Congress scaled back the credit to $400 in the economic stimulus legislation passed in Feburary 2009, which Obama signed. Obama put the lower number into his 2010 budget proposal, which has yet to be taken up by Congress. Because of the reduction, we rated this Compromise.

• No. 38: Repeal the Bush tax cuts for higher incomes Obama wants to raise taxes on roughly the top 3 percent of taxpayers in order to help pay for his health care plan. That translates to increases for single people making more than $200,000 or couples making more than $250,000. His 2010 budget includes the rate increases on the two highest income tax brackets, raising the 33 percent bracket to 36 percent and the 35 percent bracket to 39.6 percent. We'll see whether Congress agrees with this one or not. The Obameter says In The Works.

• No. 126: Begin removing combat brigades from Iraq Obama said he would work with military commanders to bring troops home, with combat troops out in 16 months. On Feb. 27, 2009, Obama gave a major speech outlining plans to withdraw from Iraq, and extended the timeline to 18 months. We want to see how the withdrawal actually unfolds, so for now we rate this promise In the Works.

• No. 177: Close the Guantanamo Bay Detention Center On his second full day in office, Obama issued an executive order to review the disposition of prisoners being held at the naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. He also ordered that the detention facility be closed within a year. The order establishes a review process with the goal of disposing of the detainees before closing the facility. We rated this In the Works.

• No. 456: Create cap and trade system with interim goals to reduce global warming This is a regulatory plan to curb carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. Under the plan, polluters have to pay according to what they emit. Obama hopes that money can help pay for some of his other initiatives, like health care and education spending. His budget says that cap and trade could generate about $150 billion over 10 years. Cap and trade is sure to see a lively debate in Congress. The Obameter says In the Works.

• No. 439: Create 5 million "green" jobs Changing the country's orientation from foreign oil to renewable energy should invigorate the "green" energy sector. That means 5 million jobs, Obama said. We found billions in the economic stimulus bill and in Obama's proposed budget for job creation in the renewable energy sector. We'll be looking for hard evidence to quantify this one before a possible move to Promise Kept. For now, it's In the Works.

• No. 52: Create a National Health Insurance Exchange This is part of Obama's comprehensive health care reform, which includes many other health promises. Under Obama's plan, the creation of a National Health Insurance Exchange would allow all Americans to select a private plan or enroll in a new public one. Obama has said he intends to address comprehensive health care this year, but he hasn't done it yet. We rate this promise No Action.

• No. 422: Create new financial regulations Obama said he wants "common-sense regulations and rules" to "restore accountability and responsibility in our corporate boardrooms." The campaign promise has become even more pressing given the unfolding financial crisis. Obama has said new financial regulations are on his agenda, even discussing the need for them on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. When he unveils his proposal, the Obameter will move, but currently it's No Action.


• No. 441: Reduce oil consumption by 35 percent by 2030 The time frame is long — more than 20 years — but Obama said he hopes his policies will cut U.S. oil consumption by more than a third. He's discussed the need for the country to do this many times since taking office, but the Obameter needs to see some more definitive changes in the nation's energy habits before we change our ruling from No Action.